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Proving von Mises

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Post  B-Ran Wed Jan 07, 2009 2:51 pm

What criteria could be used to prove von Misesian economics works as advertised?
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Post  Enron Wed Jan 07, 2009 3:21 pm

One way that holds some water, is the accuracy of predictions. While Keynes was blindsighted by the Great Depression, Mises and Hayek predicted it. There are other examples of Austrians being far ahead of the curve in their economic predictions.

Another way would be to praxeologically examine the arguments. I suggest reading Human Action. It rocks.

Those are two ways to prove Mises' views. I know that people may see those pieces of evidence and still disagree, but I believe that they are evidence. You could break proofs it into two categories: History and Praxeology.
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Post  B-Ran Wed Jan 07, 2009 4:09 pm

The historical argument might hold some water, but there's always the chance that the Great Depression may have happened because of reasons beyond and regardless of what von Mises or Hayek said. Just because I tell you the sun will come up tomorrow should not lend weight to my related argument that the sun will sink into the sea tonight.

The difficult part about praxeology for me is that von Mises relies entirely on axioms as a matter of course without exposing those axioms to empirically-based criticism. He expects one to take his axioms as the truth of a particular situation based on their supposed self-evidential nature, but some of his axioms even as basic as the conscious nature of (some) human actions or the degree of consciousness involved in human prioritization have been disputed rather successfully since he published Human Action. This is not to throw the baby out with the bathwater, because I believe that many of von Mises ideas were fundamentally sound. But one can see the danger of basing one's entire belief system around "self-evident truth," because ultimately the "self-evidence" of a truth really comes down to whether someone believes such a truth is true.
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Post  Enron Wed Jan 07, 2009 4:35 pm

B-Ran wrote:The historical argument might hold some water, but there's always the chance that the Great Depression may have happened because of reasons beyond and regardless of what von Mises or Hayek said. Just because I tell you the sun will come up tomorrow should not lend weight to my related argument that the sun will sink into the sea tonight.

I agree. Just because they called it, doesn't make the means that they used the correct means. However, if someone is consistently way off, it does damage their credibility.

B-Ran wrote:The difficult part about praxeology for me is that von Mises relies entirely on axioms as a matter of course without exposing those axioms to empirically-based criticism. He expects one to take his axioms as the truth of a particular situation based on their supposed self-evidential nature, but some of his axioms even as basic as the conscious nature of (some) human actions or the degree of consciousness involved in human prioritization have been disputed rather successfully since he published Human Action. This is not to throw the baby out with the bathwater, because I believe that many of von Mises ideas were fundamentally sound. But one can see the danger of basing one's entire belief system around "self-evident truth," because ultimately the "self-evidence" of a truth really comes down to whether someone believes such a truth is true.

Yeah, I understand. Two questions:
1. Which "self evident truths" do you disagree with?
2. How do you prove any of your economic principles?
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Post  B-Ran Wed Jan 07, 2009 6:46 pm

Enron wrote:
Yeah, I understand. Two questions:
1. Which "self evident truths" do you disagree with?
2. How do you prove any of your economic principles?

1. I have a hard time with von Mises' ordinal model, because so many choices that are made are not made as a result of conscious deliberation, but rather what we could call "metaconscious" thought, that is, thought that has been conformed into a pattern to the point that it doesn't require much thought to perform a particular action. I realize that von Mises' entire contention is that you can't say for certain -why- someone makes a choice that they do, and thus it's better to examine the actions of people rather than their motives, but human motives are just as important, if not more so, especially with the Misesian model being so consumer-driven.

That's another point of contention: Mises says that the content of the market is ultimately decided by the consumer, which I agree with to the extent that something that will not sell will not last in a natural market. On the other hand, I feel it's lacking a degree of nuance to say that since only consumers buy things, companies are therefore in the consumer-satisfaction business. I say their still in the money-making business, and that it's an important distinction to make. Companies will only ever sell those products that they feel it is in their best interest to sell; of course, consumer satisfaction is a major concern, but it's far from the only concern. Materials costs, the costs of capital improvement, ease of sales, etc, all move pricing and availability, and not always in time with the consumerate. It can be said that the consumer makes the ultimate decision to buy, but one cannot ignore the fact that the producer makes the ultimate decision to sell before anyone decides to buy.
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Post  Enron Wed Jan 07, 2009 11:24 pm

B-Ran wrote:
Enron wrote:
Yeah, I understand. Two questions:
1. Which "self evident truths" do you disagree with?
2. How do you prove any of your economic principles?

1. I have a hard time with von Mises' ordinal model, because so many choices that are made are not made as a result of conscious deliberation, but rather what we could call "metaconscious" thought, that is, thought that has been conformed into a pattern to the point that it doesn't require much thought to perform a particular action. I realize that von Mises' entire contention is that you can't say for certain -why- someone makes a choice that they do, and thus it's better to examine the actions of people rather than their motives, but human motives are just as important, if not more so, especially with the Misesian model being so consumer-driven.

That's another point of contention: Mises says that the content of the market is ultimately decided by the consumer, which I agree with to the extent that something that will not sell will not last in a natural market. On the other hand, I feel it's lacking a degree of nuance to say that since only consumers buy things, companies are therefore in the consumer-satisfaction business. I say their still in the money-making business, and that it's an important distinction to make. Companies will only ever sell those products that they feel it is in their best interest to sell; of course, consumer satisfaction is a major concern, but it's far from the only concern. Materials costs, the costs of capital improvement, ease of sales, etc, all move pricing and availability, and not always in time with the consumerate. It can be said that the consumer makes the ultimate decision to buy, but one cannot ignore the fact that the producer makes the ultimate decision to sell before anyone decides to buy.

Yes, Mises studied and wrote of human action. I am not sure how free-market economics somehow fails to serve people's motives, because people's motives are acted out. I do not think that a motive that is not acted on is any better served through any government intervention.

Companies are definitely profit driven. The means of production is definitely a necessary part of bringing to the consumer what they choose to trade for. Yes, the entrepreneur has to decide to make something that he believes people will want to trade for. Still, ultimately, the consumer decides what his best options are. In order for the entrepreneur to succeed, they must give the consumer something that the consumer deems most worth a trade. Yes, there are many factors to consider when producing a good. Costs of materials and costs of capital need to be considered, whether in a free-market or not. The free-market does a better job of determining the best uses for the materials and the capital to meet the consumers' demands than a market that includes government intervention and planning. No matter what the costs of capital or materials, the only way to be profitable in a free-market economy is to serve consumers' wants/needs at a cost that they are willing to pay.
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Post  B-Ran Thu Jan 08, 2009 12:07 am

Define "better."
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Post  Enron Thu Jan 08, 2009 12:31 am

B-Ran wrote:Define "better."

- of superior quality or excellence.

JK.

Really, what I meant by "better" was that the free market more accurately met the consumer's needs according to the consumer's values.
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Post  B-Ran Thu Jan 08, 2009 12:33 am

Can it be said that such is the best possible state of affairs? It seems to me that saying "(a) is better because (a) is (a)" is tautological.
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Post  Enron Thu Jan 08, 2009 12:38 am

B-Ran wrote:Can it be said that such is the best possible state of affairs? It seems to me that saying "(a) is better because (a) is (a)" is tautological.

Yeah, I guess I don't need to say it is "better". I will just leave it at "meets the consumer's needs/wants more accurately". Personally, I think that is better, but I understand if someone is not concerned with meeting the needs of the consumer accurately. You think that is better, right?
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Post  Enron Thu Jan 08, 2009 12:41 am

B-Ran wrote:Can it be said that such is the best possible state of affairs? It seems to me that saying "(a) is better because (a) is (a)" is tautological.

Also, because profits are the rewards and competition is often fierce, being efficient and cost effective is encouraged in the free market. Innovative ways to make efficient use of the materials and capital on hand makes for a more successful business than one that lacks that sort of innovation.
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Post  B-Ran Thu Jan 08, 2009 12:42 am

I think that it's a bit of a leap to say that consumers being able to have whatever they want whenever they want it is the ideal end-state of society, though I can understand how one might come to that conclusion based on a highly individualistic highly subjective conception of the ideal. And, like I said before, I have enough faith in the market mechanism to believe it does most things as advertised. However, I also believe in less-tangible social goods that are not easily bought or sold.
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Post  Enron Thu Jan 08, 2009 12:49 am

B-Ran wrote:I think that it's a bit of a leap to say that consumers being able to have whatever they want whenever they want it is the ideal end-state of society, though I can understand how one might come to that conclusion based on a highly individualistic highly subjective conception of the ideal. And, like I said before, I have enough faith in the market mechanism to believe it does most things as advertised. However, I also believe in less-tangible social goods that are not easily bought or sold.

Don't worry, scarcity will not cease. People will still have wants and wishes that they can't meet.

What sort of social goods are you speaking of? How would these social goods best be produced and distributed throughout society?
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Post  B-Ran Thu Jan 08, 2009 1:05 am

Theoretically, once we achieve the Technocratic Equilibrium, scarcity will cease because we'll just become so good at producing things that anything will be available to anyone at anytime for a price they'd likely be able to afford. But I think that's a pipe-dream...

Anyway, on to your question. Social goods are typically intangible, and include such things as "living in a society where people don't die on the streets" and "living in a democracy peopled by active, informed individuals" and "being able to achieve your dreams if you work hard." These social goods in and of themselves don't suggest a certain course of action; quite the contrary, they posit a certain possible state of affairs. That's what makes them tricky. The three above examples are those which I picked because I believe there's an overwhelming consensus opinion in our country that at least those three social goods are ones that everyone would like to see.

The question of how best to produce these social goods is certainly up for debate; how do you express your desire for such in a free market? In Human Action, von Mises explicitly states that offering any good for below market price distorts the market even if such were offered charitably. I'll provide a citation if needed, but I'm pretty sure that's what he was saying.

But I don't think that he was saying that no one ought to ever be charitable. At least I hope not...

The flip side of the coin would be that if von Mises would say that charity was acceptable, even though it distorts the market, would that mean that there are greater social goods than the market can by itself provide?
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Post  Enron Thu Jan 08, 2009 10:59 am

B-Ran wrote:Theoretically, once we achieve the Technocratic Equilibrium, scarcity will cease because we'll just become so good at producing things that anything will be available to anyone at anytime for a price they'd likely be able to afford. But I think that's a pipe-dream...

Definitely a pipe dream.

B-Ran wrote:Anyway, on to your question. Social goods are typically intangible, and include such things as "living in a society where people don't die on the streets" and "living in a democracy peopled by active, informed individuals" and "being able to achieve your dreams if you work hard." These social goods in and of themselves don't suggest a certain course of action; quite the contrary, they posit a certain possible state of affairs. That's what makes them tricky. The three above examples are those which I picked because I believe there's an overwhelming consensus opinion in our country that at least those three social goods are ones that everyone would like to see.

I do want to see people live a healthy life, be happy, experience joy, achieve their dreams, working hard, etc. I think these things matter. I just do not think that government is or has ever been good at facilitating these social goods.

B-Ran wrote:The question of how best to produce these social goods is certainly up for debate; how do you express your desire for such in a free market? In Human Action, von Mises explicitly states that offering any good for below market price distorts the market even if such were offered charitably. I'll provide a citation if needed, but I'm pretty sure that's what he was saying.

Yeah, I would like to see that citation and discuss it.

B-Ran wrote:But I don't think that he was saying that no one ought to ever be charitable. At least I hope not...

I can guarantee that he was not suggesting that no one be charitable.

B-Ran wrote:The flip side of the coin would be that if von Mises would say that charity was acceptable, even though it distorts the market, would that mean that there are greater social goods than the market can by itself provide?

Before we come to a conclusion, I think it is important to see what you are referring to.
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Post  B-Ran Thu Jan 08, 2009 12:42 pm

You probably understand how hard it is to dig up a specific thing out of Human Action that you read only once and didn't bother to bookmark.

The things a freaking book.

I will find it, but the praxeological justification is pretty easy: anything given away will distort the market by its very nature. After all, when something is free, the consumer pays nothing and has his needs met without having to do anything in return.
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Post  Enron Thu Jan 08, 2009 2:24 pm

B-Ran wrote:You probably understand how hard it is to dig up a specific thing out of Human Action that you read only once and didn't bother to bookmark.

The things a freaking book.

I will find it, but the praxeological justification is pretty easy: anything given away will distort the market by its very nature. After all, when something is free, the consumer pays nothing and has his needs met without having to do anything in return.

Absolutely. It is a monster of a book.

People acting charitably does change the distribution of wealth voluntarily. I see no problem with this in regards to the market. Would it ultimately change what goods there are demand for? Yes. It would most likely eliminate demand for more luxury items and create demand where there were needs that are going to be met in a charitable fashion.

For example, if I choose to buy food for the homeless instead of buying a new TV, I have chosen to demand food for my purchasing power instead of a TV. There would now be one less TV in demand and more food in demand. This does not create any problems for the market though, because the market would still be serving my demands. Whether I value a new TV or feeding the homeless with that money, is up to me in a free market. Either way, my demand affects the market one way or another. I wouldn't say this distorts the market. Instead, I would say this is the market at work.
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Post  B-Ran Thu Jan 08, 2009 8:35 pm

Alright, I found the chunk of text I was looking for:

XXVII. THE GOVERNMENT AND THE MARKET
4. Righteousness as the Ultimate Standard of the Individual’s Actions
(Beginning on pg. 724 of the 4th Edition of Human Action)

Give it a read, for sure.
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Post  B-Ran Thu Jan 08, 2009 8:38 pm

Enron wrote:
B-Ran wrote:You probably understand how hard it is to dig up a specific thing out of Human Action that you read only once and didn't bother to bookmark.

The things a freaking book.

I will find it, but the praxeological justification is pretty easy: anything given away will distort the market by its very nature. After all, when something is free, the consumer pays nothing and has his needs met without having to do anything in return.

Absolutely. It is a monster of a book.

People acting charitably does change the distribution of wealth voluntarily. I see no problem with this in regards to the market. Would it ultimately change what goods there are demand for? Yes. It would most likely eliminate demand for more luxury items and create demand where there were needs that are going to be met in a charitable fashion.

For example, if I choose to buy food for the homeless instead of buying a new TV, I have chosen to demand food for my purchasing power instead of a TV. There would now be one less TV in demand and more food in demand. This does not create any problems for the market though, because the market would still be serving my demands. Whether I value a new TV or feeding the homeless with that money, is up to me in a free market. Either way, my demand affects the market one way or another. I wouldn't say this distorts the market. Instead, I would say this is the market at work.

The supporters of these doctrines fail to recognize the role which those
springs of action they condemn as vicious play in the operation of the market
economy. The only reason why the market economy can operate without
government orders telling everybody precisely what he should do and how he
should do it is that it does not ask anybody to deviate from those lines of conduct
which best serve his own interests
. What integrates the individual’s actions into
the whole of the social system of production is the pursuit of his own purposes.
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Post  Enron Thu Jan 08, 2009 8:44 pm

B-Ran wrote:
Enron wrote:
B-Ran wrote:You probably understand how hard it is to dig up a specific thing out of Human Action that you read only once and didn't bother to bookmark.

The things a freaking book.

I will find it, but the praxeological justification is pretty easy: anything given away will distort the market by its very nature. After all, when something is free, the consumer pays nothing and has his needs met without having to do anything in return.

Absolutely. It is a monster of a book.

People acting charitably does change the distribution of wealth voluntarily. I see no problem with this in regards to the market. Would it ultimately change what goods there are demand for? Yes. It would most likely eliminate demand for more luxury items and create demand where there were needs that are going to be met in a charitable fashion.

For example, if I choose to buy food for the homeless instead of buying a new TV, I have chosen to demand food for my purchasing power instead of a TV. There would now be one less TV in demand and more food in demand. This does not create any problems for the market though, because the market would still be serving my demands. Whether I value a new TV or feeding the homeless with that money, is up to me in a free market. Either way, my demand affects the market one way or another. I wouldn't say this distorts the market. Instead, I would say this is the market at work.

The supporters of these doctrines fail to recognize the role which those
springs of action they condemn as vicious play in the operation of the market
economy. The only reason why the market economy can operate without
government orders telling everybody precisely what he should do and how he
should do it is that it does not ask anybody to deviate from those lines of conduct
which best serve his own interests
. What integrates the individual’s actions into
the whole of the social system of production is the pursuit of his own purposes.

If your interests lead you to be charitable, so be it.
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Post  B-Ran Thu Jan 08, 2009 8:47 pm

I would encourage you to read the section I cited. It's relatively short, but it gave me pause the first time I read it because it looked to me that von Mises was trying to say that social reformers who decried greed were just as apt to ruin the market as government interventionalists. If nothing else, I'd like a second set of eyes on it because it seemed out of character for LvM to write that.
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Post  Enron Thu Jan 08, 2009 9:01 pm

B-Ran wrote:I would encourage you to read the section I cited. It's relatively short, but it gave me pause the first time I read it because it looked to me that von Mises was trying to say that social reformers who decried greed were just as apt to ruin the market as government interventionalists. If nothing else, I'd like a second set of eyes on it because it seemed out of character for LvM to write that.

I just re-read it. I finished reading Human Action for the first time a week and a half ago.

LvM is basically saying, which fits with the rest of his writings, that people are better off with a market economy regardless of benevolence or greed being the underlying motivation for the voluntary exchanges that occur. He is suggesting that the free market does not rely on benevolence to best meet people's interests. Even assuming greed is the primary interest of most people, the free market works because the most productive way to serve your own interests involves the action of meeting other people's interests via voluntary exchange. Understanding this point is key to understanding the free market.


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Post  B-Ran Thu Jan 08, 2009 9:05 pm

It's funny how little I actually disagree with most of LvM's conclusions, even though I find his methodology slightly suspect.

Then again, it's funny I find his methodology slightly suspect given my open disdain for the "social sciences."

I guess I'm complicated.

EDIT:

I wish I could find a hard copy; reading more than 10 pages on the computer gives me the eyestrain something fierce, so I've had to digest it in chunks.
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Post  Enron Thu Jan 08, 2009 9:08 pm

B-Ran wrote:I wish I could find a hard copy; reading more than 10 pages on the computer gives me the eyestrain something fierce, so I've had to digest it in chunks.

Yeah, I am going to get a hard copy.
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Post  Enron Thu Jan 08, 2009 9:11 pm

B-Ran wrote:I would encourage you to read the section I cited. It's relatively short, but it gave me pause the first time I read it because it looked to me that von Mises was trying to say that social reformers who decried greed were just as apt to ruin the market as government interventionalists. If nothing else, I'd like a second set of eyes on it because it seemed out of character for LvM to write that.

He had no problem with social reformers that wanted people to have moral values. Instead, he knew that an effective way that doesn't rely on the good intentions of people, is the free market.
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